CENTRAL NEWS
Following the emergence of the terrorist organization ISIS in Syria, its occupation of Syrian lands with the support of the Turkish state, and its threat against the Rojava region; only the People’s and Women’s Defense Units were able protect their regions and move even further to annihilate ISIS completely.
They completed the long-awaited project of the people of the region to form the Syrian Democratic Forces, defeat ISIS and establish an autonomous administration in northern and eastern Syria.
Turkey and the ‘Anti-Syria coalition’ on the other hand lost all areas of control, following the agreement made between Turkey and Russia. Turkey, cornered to having a very limited presence in Idlib, used the mercenaries of the Syrian regime it could not overthrow to occupy Afrin, Serekaniye, and Gire Spi.
Despite this, the peoples of the region in the north and east of Syria proved the success of their Autonomous Administration project and received support from the international community. A key factor in the success of the project was that the Autonomous Administration had no request to leave Syria and always favored the unity of Syria where the option was made available. Still, the project was not welcomed by the Turkish, Iranian or Syrian regimes.
Cause chaos and intervene
Unlike the areas under Turkish occupation, the Autonomous Administration is not culturally, economically, or militarily dependent. The success of the Administration is the reason why Turkey and its mercenaries, along with Russia and its puppet (the Syrian regime), are trying to cause chaos in the region by creating internal conflict. It is clear at this point that ordinary repression policies, such as the the classic ’cause chaos and intervene’ tactic, do not work in the area.
The biggest strength of the administration is the people and their unity, hence why the spokesman of the Bakara tribe Suleiman al-Kassar was assassinated, Suleiman al-Vaise was murdered and Alhammud Al-havel, among the leading sheikhs of the Agidat tribe, was killed.
This disapproval was made especially evident after an agreement was signed between the Syrian Democratic Forces (the army of the areas controlled by the Administration) and an American company, Deley Crist Energy. The agreement, which will have positive effects on the regional economy and in the development of the region, has not been accepted by Russia which is rushing to increase its military presence in SDF areas.
Russia cornered, Turkey helpless
Before starting any political compromise in Syria, Russia is striving with all its might to find a solution that suits it and guarantees its interests. And if the war situation continues, the greatest economic damage will be done to the Russian side because the Caesar law forbids it from investing in regime-controlled areas.
The Syrian Democratic Forces are partners of the United States and the International Coalition, and the Autonomous Administration regions are exempt from sanctions, so Russia aims to get an oil investment contract to compensate for its losses in Syria and maintain its dominance in the north and east of Syria.
While the economic crisis continues to plague the regime, failure by Russia to receive economic fruit and Turkey’s inability to occupy eastern and northern Syria; the Autonomous Administration and Syrian Democratic Forces are facing various scenarios:
1) AA partners with Russia and Turkey, liquidating the SDF
Similar to the “Olive Branch” and “Peace Spring” operations that led to the occupation of Afrin, Gre Spi and Sere Kaniye, there is a possibility that occupied areas could increase if the US withdraws from Syria.
However, this scenario is a little too unrealistic and would not be accepted by the US because the US presence in northern and eastern Syria is linked to its relations with the Syrian Democratic Forces, not with the Administration.
Also, from the NATO side of the table, it would be unacceptable for Russia to form an alliance on US interest with a NATO member.
In addition, Russia is trying to recapture Idlib from Turkish occupation. The alliance between the two sides requires clarification regarding the Turkish occupation areas in northern Syria, and especially Idlib. Russia thought Turkey would withdraw from the areas it occupies in return for the liquidation of the AA. This did not happen because it would mean Turkey withdrawing from the Syrian crisis with huge losses, rather than the economic benefits it came for.
2) Firing the Fuse in Autonomous Regions
This scenario has been under implementation since the start of the Syrian crisis by the Syrian regime and Turkish state, in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and various other areas under the AA. It is aiming to be achieved through the influencing of tribal leaders.
What is new in this scenario is the targeting of Arab tribal leaders such as Al-Bakara and Al-Aqedat, taking advantage of the divisions within these tribes, and accusing the Syrian Democratic Forces and Autonomous Administration of recent assassinations.
The process came after the Autonomous Administration’s success in making the region more systematically self-governed. It attracted foreign companies to invest in the regions, improving the living conditions of the people of the region.
For this reason, Russia, Turkey and the Regime create instability in the region in order to avoid investment in the Autonomous areas and aims to ignite the wick of a misunderstanding between the components of the people. The lack of instability reduces the chances of foreign interest-intervention.
The killings will not be limited to tribal sheikhs and leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and will target coalition soldiers, especially Americans, to accelerate America’s withdrawal from the region, especially since Trump has declared his willingness to withdraw from Syria more than once.
3) Russia and the Regime accept the Autonomous Administration and end Turkish occupation
The failure to create turmoil in the region by Russia, the Syrian Regime and Turkey will mean the continued success of the AA community in increasing investment in the region. This, in turn, will make it difficult to terminate the AA. The fact that these companies will put pressure on their countries to protect their investments in the region, will force Russia and the regime to submit to and accept the Autonomous Administration.
In addition, Russia wants to take control of the whole of Syria meaning it would have to find a very detailed solution. This solution would necessitate that the increasing tensions between Russia and Turkey in Idlib and Libya be resolved, since Turkey is the power increasing terrorism in these areas. Here, Russia may opt for military support from the force who is the most familiar with the region: the Syrian Democratic Forces.
In addition, there are ways and methods that Russia can follow in the north and east of Syria. Another option is to allow Turkish drones to carry out military operations targeting the leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces, forcing the SDF to submit to its demands, similar to its relationship with the United States.
Maintaining the people’s security and protecting the stability of the region requires making personal (not communal) sacrifices. It would neccessitate that the accomplishments of the AA are protected despite its consequences, by forming an international front, by strengthening solidarity. The AA is the idea of the people and can only be protected by the people.
