CENTRAL NEWS
Clashes have continuously intensified in Libya, which split into two after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, over the past year with the inclusion of foreign, regional and international powers.
On one side of the fight is the Libyan National Army (LNA), under the command of the Tobruk-based general Kaliph Khafter, which controls nearly 80 percent of the country’s territory.
Meanwhile, the National Consensus Government (GNA), headed by Faayiz El Serrac, is directed by the Tripoli-based Ihvan Muslim (Muslim Brothers).
While many countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and France support LNA; Countries such as the Turkish state, Qatar, Italy and the UK also support GNA.
RECLAIM OF OTTOMAN LAND BY TURKEY
The Turkish state, pursuing Ottoman dreams, claims rights in Libya, the last land lost in North Africa with the Uşi agreement signed in 1911.
The Turkish state, which supports the GNA on the line, is sending weapons and ammo to the country every day, despite the UN’s arms embargo. The Turkish army’s UAVs and AUAVs are also actively involved in the war.
The Turkish state, which has sent troops to the country, has taken command of the war after sending over 5 thousand gang members (ISIS, Al-Nusra and Ihvan affiliation gang) from Syria to the country.
NEW NEIGHBOURS
The Turkish state also claimed that, despite the objections of the countries that have a coast to the Mediterranean, on December 20, 2019, it signed an agreement with the Serrac government and united its borders in the Mediterranean.
Despite all the steps taken by the Turkish state, the Hafter forces continued their progress throughout 2019, managed to squeeze Serrac’s forces into Tripoli by taking over many regions.
THE COVID DISTRACTION
During a period in which the Secretary-General of the United Nations called for cease-fire all over the world due to the coronavirus pandemic, the whole world focused on fighting the virus. The Turkish state, though, has launched a comprehensive wave of attacks against the Khafter forces in recent weeks.
Tripoli’s western coastline and some settlements on the Tunisian border have fallen into the hands of GNA-bound forces. The capture of Sabrata and Surman was particularly important to the GNA. Because land connection with Tunisia was established again.
Having dreamed of a “new Ottomanism,” things are not going well for the Turkish state, which is on a campaign in Libya. The Turkish state, which suffers heavy losses every day, has given its supporters and press a short-term mirage with the attacks it started in the desert recently.
WE MAY BE SURPRISED
Professor of Libya University. Muxtar Cedal said that the GNA’s newly gained locations are not “surprises,” saying that this is not strategically important to the LNA.
The modern history expert said: “The GNA aims to take control of human trafficking and oil routes by capturing these regions on the border line. They see the capture of the Tunisian border as a breathing pipe,” says Muxtar Cedal.
REBI: TRABLUS AND MISRATA’S WAR IS DIFFERENT
Egyptian journalist and Libyan Research Specialist Ebdulhadî Rebi states that the war in Libya in the cities of Tripoli and Misrata is different than the war in other parts of the country.
“These two cities are bigger than other cities. Taking a neighborhood from here may be more difficult than taking a different city in other parts of Libya. It can also be of more strategic importance,” says Ebdulhadî Rebi.
CEDAL: MORE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE TO HISTORY FOR LNA
Saying that the places lost by the LNA are not strategically important, Dr. Muxtar Cedal notes that the most strategic place for the LNA is Tarhuna, and that forces have been sent to Tarhuna where there is a strong resistance.
Tarhuna, located about 100 km southeast of Tripoli, is the tribal confederation of Tarhuna, the inhabitants of the city. The Tarhuna tribe, acting together with the LNA, is one of the tribes the Turkish state has targeted most in Libya.
He stated that Tarhuna is strategically important for LNA. “The forces here are well resisted. We may also get surprise news in the coming days,” says Muxtar Cedal.
LAST TACTICAL WAR OF LNA AND GNA
Indicating that the Libyan National Army is a new power and that the majority of them are left over from the army in the Gaddafi period, Ebdulhadî Rebi notes that the number of this power does not exceed 100 thousand and says:
“The number of these forces is not enough to control the whole Libya. They are moving forward by transferring the administration and defense of the regions they control to the local forces. Where the GNA forces took it in their last attacks, these local defense forces withdrew from the conflict. The lost places were lost in this way.”
Indicating that the LNA gave all its weight to Tripoli and Misrata, Ebdulhadî Rebi said that the GNA is trying to break the circle of Misrata and Tripoli by attacking from the desert areas with gangs brought from the Turkish state and Syria.
TWO POWERS: RUSSIA AND TURKEY
Two powers are fighting against each other in the Libyan war, as in the Syrian war: Russia and the Turkish state. The conflicts in Libya and Idlib over the past year have increased and decreased in dialects with each other.
When the conflict intensified in Idlib in February, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan targeted Russia’s forces in the region, Wagner, and said: “Hafter took refuge behind a group called Wagner. Wagner is legionary. Hafter himself is a legionnaire. ”
Russian media, on the other hand, put the gangs that the Turkish state transferred from Idlib to Libya on its agenda. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, referring to the gangs sent by the Turkish state to Libya, “We will not allow the opening of a new area for terrorists.”
Hard message to Russia
The Turkish state, hiding behind the coronavirus opportunity, also sent a message to Russia through Wagner’s forces in a recent attack called “Rage Volcano” launched against the LNA in Libya.
The Turkish army distributed leaflets reading “Surrender” in Arabic and English from the air in Tarhuna, threw the same leaflets in Russian over Wagner’s bases.
In the brochures, the Turkish state added, “Retreat and stop fighting. We have decided not to make peace with you. We will kill anyone who refuses to drop their weapons. This is an opportunity offered to you. The flame of the volcano is coming to melt the snow of Moscow. ”
